Canada’s housing market is cooling off with prices and sales falling led by steep declines in its two largest markets, new numbers show.

MLS (Multiple Listing Service) Home Price Index fell 1.9 per cent in June from May and is down nearly five per cent from the end of March, a report from RBC Economics found. Sales also fell month over month by 5.6 per cent, and nearly 24 per cent year over year.

Every major centre saw sales fall, including Calgary at 5.6 per cent year over year. Still, it remains among the strongest markets with its price index gaining 14 per cent year over year, while remaining steady in June from May.

Declines were steepest in large centres like Toronto where sales fell more than 41 per cent in June from the same month last year, and Vancouver saw sales decrease by more than 35 per cent.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/housing-demand-falls-across-canada-led-by-vancouver-and-toronto/ar-AAZRHY5?cvid=17f1c656f72a49b9a2a47f5e3c9bd291&ct=t(Y_COPY_01)

To summarize, the effect of rising interest rates for mortgages is cooling the residential housing market. Generally, sales are taking longer which, in turn, increases the number of listings on the market.  More new listings are appearing while the number of sales are decreasing, this also results in a growing number of listings on the market. 

Buyers have more selection, more time to decide and more opportunity to present conditional offers.

Are prices falling? Perhaps some sellers are "panicking" and accepting less, however, I feel it's a bit early to make the judgement that prices are coming down.  Perhaps statistics will show average selling prices are declining but this may be because more lower priced homes are selling than higher priced homes resulting in average prices appearing to be less than before. 

Here's the latest report from the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) economist. To view the video click here... Housing Market Update.

To see the charts, click here.

Prices of new condominium apartments in Canada's major urban centres are on the rise.

Homebuyers Requiring a Mortgage are Scrambling to Buy before year end.

Steveston and surrounding real estate will likely be affected by the change in qualifying rules for mortgage to come into affect January 2018. The popular communities with young home buyers of South Surrey, Surrey, Coquitlam, Langley, because of their relative affordability, will likely be especially challenged. 

“The only people unaffected are people who don’t need mortgage financing, because now you have captured the entire market,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In other words, people buying with “cash,” as realtors like to describe no debt transactions, are the only ones unscathed.

“I’d be very surprised if 2018 is not materially lowered,” he said, referring to the forecast for housing prices and sales.

Until then, however, he sees a major bounce in activity as consumers rush to beat the deadline for OFSI’s latest rule change, which could end up costing homebuyers about 20 per cent of their purchasing power.

“There will be some pull forward of sales,” says the economist, adding that by January sales will have dried up and then it will take some months for the market to stabilize.

 

If you know anyone planning to buy soon and will require a mortgage, even with 50% down, it may be to their advantage to buy now as the mortgage specialists are saying that such homebuyers will lose up to 20% of their purchasing power with the new rules. Call me to find out is buying or selling now or in the new year is best for you. 

McMath crowned as BC Hockey tier II champons

Brandon Lum led the charge with a hat trick. The team also includes: Seth Wong-Hen, Samuel Kemp, Brandon Lum, Jordin Kojima, Brock Jung, Matt Dudicourt, Mitch Schroder, Seamus Collins, Michael Araki-Young, James Linden, Ben Hoath, Connor Sexsmith, Jared Yau, Ben Dickinson, James Sing, Kiyan Kara, Chris Gillies and goalies Max Abah and Colton Carpenter. - See more at: http://www.richmond-news.com/sports/mcmath-crowned-b-c-hockey-tier-ii-champions-1.20160049#sthash.PnEBaIGr.dpuf

As Cameron, here, says, average prices are affected by the high end market prices falling much more than low end markets resulting in average prices being dragged down.  Places like Victoria are seeing prices continue to climb and here, in Vancouver, the condominium market is "hot" with prices still climbing. 

To find out how your home is affected in today's market, call me. 

Sorrento movie from Bill de Mooy on Vimeo.

Scheduled for completion Spring of 2018. This purchaser bought early and choose one of the most favoured locations in the development. If you want a 2 bedroom and den in a new home new a skytrain station in a development with an abundance of amenities, then you will want to consider this as a wise investment. 

Visit the sales office at the Sorrento to see the model, the display suites, and the remaining units.  You'll see the value here. 

"What do you think is going to happen with real estate Bill?"

A question I am faced with daily.

This I know.  Real estate in the Vancouver (and surrounding area) have been deeply affected by foreign buyers, (mainly from China) with an abundance of wealth looking to enjoy a clean, safe haven to live in or at least visit regularly. Add to these homebuyers, those that seek to take advantage of the demand to buy a finite number of detached homes to hold and ride the rising prices and sell off for huge profits. 

I could see the increase in demand and resulting price increases when I saw the value of the Canadian dollar fall against the US dollar.  With the currency in China tied closely to the American currency, the Canadian devaluation meant Canadian real estate fell in value next to the Yuan Renminbi.  In other words, real estate in Canada went on sale.  A buyer from China found they got a pile of more Canadian dollars in exchange for their Chinese Yuan Renminbi.  The buyer from China could offer 10% to 15% more to buy real estate in Vancouver and not cost them a cent more in their currency. 

Below shows how many Canadian dollars obtained per 1 Yuan Renminbi. The buying power of home buyers from China increased dramatically and peaked in January of 2016. 

Below shows how many Canadian dollars it took to buy one US dollar. The peak was January of 2016.  Investors in the US found Canada attractive to buy.  Remember those Canadians that took advantage of buying cheap US real estate? Some Canadians now saw an opportunity to realize currency exchange profits and sold their US property investments for Canada. 

The steady devaluation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and the China Yuan, peaking in January of 2016 was matched by the steady and dramatic increase in real estate prices in Greater Vancouver and in particular, detached homes. 

Note that  with the increase of the value in the Canada Dollar versus US and China currencies, the number of sales of detached homes in Greater Vancouver showed a steady slide down with the price increases now longer rising as before.  

Foreign buyers are no longer able to take advantage of the currency "sale" and with the newly added 15% foreign buyers tax added late in the game (August 2016) by the BC Government plus the new mortgage qualification rules introduced by the Federal Government (October 2016) it makes one wonder how much the real estate market can take before home buyers look elsewhere to invest. 

Yes, there will be people coming to buy in one of the most beautiful places to live in the world but the wave looks like it has past.  Where will prices go from here?  With the prices for houses in Greater Vancouver too high for most Canadians, I would look at where the Canadian dollar goes.  Should the Canadian dollar rise more than it is now next to foreign currencies, I suspect the foreign buyer will offer what they get in return for their currency - less Canadian dollars. 

Bill de Mooy

The real estate market has its cycles - its ups and downs.  These cycles can be long or they can be short-lived. The question is 'where are you in the cycle with your house plans?'

With 'experts' saying there will be a market correction, it's time to ask yourself how risk adverse are you. 

Using Richmond, BC as an example housing market, the facts show the sales slow down has been trending the middle of 2016. With prices of houses climbing to unaffordable levels for most Canadians, home buyers turned their direction towards town houses and condominiums. With cries of "foul" from the voters, the provincial government placed a new income generating tax on 'evil' foreign home buyers of 15% on residential properties in Metro Vancouver.  Add this with the market already showing signs of a slow down in the sales of detached properties and you have an anchor thrown out of a moving boat. (People in the know are telling me that foreign buyers are swallowing up commercial properties with these prices climbing to dizzying levels).

The federal government tosses in new mortgage rules for high ratio financing and we have a second anchor tossed out of the moving boat. 

The first time home buyers are squeezed between low vacancy rates, high rents, and climbing housing prices.  To find something they can afford to buy, they must move further out from where they work only to find an inadequate public transit service and travel by car is both expensive on gas, tolls, insurance, and travelling time is longer with traffic jams.

What's a first-time home buyer to do? With the new rules resulting in qualifying for a lower mortgage, do first-time home buyers move out yet further to find a less expensive home to buy?  Or will home sellers of such properties be forced to lower their prices?

Paul Ashworth predicts the Bank of Canada rate will fall because of the slowing economy as "the boom inevitably goes into reverse."

Which brings me to the subject of this article. Whether the 'experts' are correct in their predictions as to when, how deep and how long the housing adjustment will be, the question for you is, can you or are you willing to wait it out?

They are not making any more land and the population of Canada continues to grow, with much of the growth coming from immigration, I'm led to understand. I hear from a BBC interview that the trend towards of living in urban centres continues to grow. I cannot avoid concluding that any 'housing adjustment' will not be long. 

Long is a relative term.  If you are thinking of selling in the near future and risk is something the keeps you up at night, pehaps it is time for you to sell now to "bank" some or all of your equity. 

For those who have no plans to move for a while, relax. In my 32 years as a Realtor, I've seen the housing market adjust up more than adjust down. Mind you, "down" is a great time to "move up". 

Which ever stress level you are in, call me and we can discuss what's the best course of action for you. 

Bill de Mooy

604-274-2222

Housing Market Update (October 2016)
Watch BCREA Chief Economist Cameron Muir discuss the September 2016 statistics:

Do You Know Someone Looking To Buy A Home? Call 604-279-3815 Now.  

I have listed a new property at 479 MONTAGUE PARK RD in Galiano Island.